Exploring the Causal Relationships between Initial Opioid Prescriptions and Outcomes

Addiction to opioid medications has become an epidemic affecting millions of Americans; drug overdoses accounted for more deaths than car crashes or gun violence in 2015. Oftentimes, the addiction begins when patients continue to take opioids for pain management beyond the required need. To combat the epidemic, it is vital to understand the exact circumstances under which medically-sanctioned treatments can devolve into addiction. In this research, we analyze the relationship between factors surrounding an initial opioid prescription and subsequent long-term use or addiction. In particular, we focus on causal relationships between characteristics of the initial opioid prescription and the outcome of long-term use or seeking addiction treatment among commercially insured individuals. The analytical results indicate that longer days of supply and synthetic opioids increase the risk of unfavorable outcomes. Ultimately, the findings of this research could provide knowledge to the public and guide physicians in opioid prescribing decisions.